Ideally an awards category will group like achievements together for the sake of a level playing field. At the Emmys, comedies compete against comedies, dramas against dramas, and movies against movies. But it’s hard to imagine a race as wide-ranging as this year’s contest for Best TV Movie. Wilder is the fact that the two movies that lead our odds are the last two films you’d expect to be up for the same award.
The front-runner according to the combined predictions of more than 1,000 Gold Derby users is HBO’s “The Survivor,” a drama about a Jewish boxer (Ben Foster) who had to literally fight for his life in a concentration camp during the Holocaust. Its closest rival is Disney+’s “Chip ‘n Dale: Rescue Rangers,” a live-action/animation hybrid based on the children’s cartoon about talking chipmunks who fight crime. That’s not even like comparing apples to oranges. It’s comparing apples to ethnic cleansing.
But as spectacularly dissimilar as those two films are, their MetaCritic scores actually aren’t far apart: 71 for “The Survivor” and 66 for “Rescue Rangers.” On Rotten Tomatoes “The Survivor” is 86% fresh while “Rescue Rangers” is 80% fresh. And neither film has any other Emmy nominations, so the playing field is pretty level in that respect too. Conventional wisdom suggests that the prestige film with the loftier subject matter and strong awards pedigree (“The Survivor” is directed by Oscar champ Barry Levinson) has the strong advantage, but not everyone agrees about that.
As of this writing three Expert journalists we’ve surveyed predict “The Survivor,” but one says “Rescue Rangers.” Eight of Gold Derby’s Editors who cover awards year-round say “The Survivor,” but four say “Rescue Rangers.” An overwhelming 20 of our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Creative Arts winners say “The Survivor,” but there are still three who say “Rescue Rangers.” And among our All-Star Top 24, who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ Emmy results, 21 bet on “The Survivor,” while two are going out on a limb for “Rescue Rangers.”
So it does look like “The Survivor” will come out on top, but it’s not a sure thing.
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